My thoughts on Covid and the vaccine
Last week, I detailed my experience with Covid.
This week, I want to explain why I chose not to get the vaccine AND still encouraged my parents to get the vaccine.
But before I do that, let me explain why I haven’t advocated one way or another for the vaccine.
It’s because I’m not qualified. I’m a personal trainer — not a virologist.
I’ll explain my thought process and story, and in doing so, I hope I can play a small role to help stop the division between the vaccinated and unvaccinated. We’re seeing families turn on each other. Friends no longer being friends.
Please understand that we’re all doing the best we know how and navigating through this together. We’ll make mistakes and get things wrong — but we can all choose to be kind. #mindright
Let’s honor those who’ve passed and the loved ones left behind
While words can never replace a loved one, I’ll share one of my favorite passages from the Bible with you: Psalm 46: 1-3, 10-11
1 “God is our refuge and strength, a very present help in trouble.
2 Therefore will not we fear, though the earth be removed, and though the mountains be carried into the midst of the sea;
3 Though the waters thereof roar and be troubled, though the mountains shake with the swelling thereof. Selah”
10 “Be still, and know that I am God: I will be exalted among the nations, I will be exalted in the earth.
11 The Lord of hosts is with us; the God of Jacob is our refuge. Selah.”
Now, I’m going to break down this post into 5 parts:
- Pre-vaccine
- Division and mixed messaging
- Post-vaccine
- The gray line between individual autonomy and community benefit
- Going forward
I could discuss each of these sections in much more detail and go down a rabbit hole on each one. And that's my central argument: this should be a nuanced conversation based on age, risk tolerance, and comorbidities.
1) Pre-vaccine
Early in 2020, a buddy of mine in Brooklyn catches Covid. He described it as someone standing on his chest (note that my friend’s in better shape than me).
I started to get concerned. How would this affect my mom, who has several comorbidities? How would it affect my father, who’s a smoker and was just diagnosed with prostate cancer?
I recall going to Trader Joe’s in California and it looked like something out of a zombie apocalypse movie. There were a few old pieces of vegetables left and the rest of the store was basically wiped out.
People were scared.
We get more information:
- The disease adversely affects the elderly and those with comorbidities
- We now know those 65 and older make up 75% of the deaths
- 94% of those hospitalized had at least one comorbidity
- The highest risk factor for death is obesity
My concern for my own health decreased, but out of respect for the elderly and those not in good health, I took quarantine seriously.
My actions during this time-frame
I basically did my TMAC 20 Workouts, ran the trails, surfed, and stayed away from people. I avoided all crowds until all adult Americans were eligible for the vaccine.
I’m usually fine with some isolation, but being a single guy during quarantine was challenging. We are made to be held. To be touched. To be in community. In short, isolation isn’t healthy.
Even actions taken with good intentions have unintended consequences.
2) Division and loss of trust in the medical community
A friend of mine’s brother is on his deathbed from Covid. She’s not allowed to see him or say her goodbyes. Her brother dies alone in a hospital bed. Gut-wrenching!
Around this same time, tens of thousands gather to protest the murder of George Floyd.
Either Covid is so deadly that we’re willing to allow our loved ones to die alone, or it’s safe to gather in large crowds.
Both cannot be true.
This may be my biggest fear — loss of trust from our medical community.
What happens when a more deadly virus happens? Will we as citizens have the trust to listen to our medical experts?
I hope so, but trust is very hard to regain and takes time.
3) Vaccine arrives at record speed
It really is a scientific miracle that this vaccine was developed as quickly as it was.
“A typical vaccine development timeline takes 5 to 10 years, and sometimes longer.” — John Hopkins University of Medicine.
Am I anti-vaccine?
Hell no!
Very few discoveries have lengthed the lifespan of human beings more than vaccines.
Why I chose not to get this vaccine
It came down to two things:
- My mortality risk vs unknown long-term effects of the vaccine
- I never saw Covid zero as a realistic option
My mortality risk
While there’s no way to know with 100% certainty — based on the information I could gather — my mortality risk (39 yr old male) was roughly .05%.
Considering I don’t have any known commodities, I estimated my risk was possibly even lower. Remember, 94% of those hospitalized had at least one comorbidity.
A question that healthy young people should factor into the conversation
What are the long-term side effects of the vaccine? We don’t know.
To be fair, we don’t know the long effects of Covid either.
We’re literally living in an actual experiment. We’re still learning and will know more in two years and a lot more in 20 years.
But to keep it simple, I was looking at something like this for a risk calculation:
.05% vs ? (unknown long term side effects of vaccine)
I was fine with this risk. But what about my parents?
As you can see in the table above, they’re at a much higher risk (plus they have comorbidities). I strongly encouraged them to get the vaccine and I’m glad they did.
The vaccine appears to be safe in the short run and helps prevent hospitalization and death. (Note: outliers do exist).
The risk vs reward makes a lot of sense for the older population and those with commodities (which is a very large part of our population).
The original argument against my position
If you get the vaccine, you can’t spread the virus to those most vulnerable, like Grandma.
Question: Can grandma get the vaccine?
Answer: Yes, she can.
Question: So grandma is protected right?
Answer: Either the vaccine prevents infection or it does not.
To those who made this claim…well, let me introduce you to Omicron. This brings me to the second reason I chose not to get the vaccine.
Here’s what I mean by, “Covid Zero was never a realistic option”
False assumption: if all Americans get the vaccine, we get rid of Covid.
What about the other 7+ billion people on the planet? Does the virus stop at our borders?
Obviously not.
Before I was eligible to get a vaccine, we already started to see different variants pop up in other countries.
I estimated that it would take several more years to get the majority of the people around the world vaccinated, and by that time, this virus would’ve replicated numerous times.
An educated guess: we’d have to get a new vaccine each year to help fight new variants.
My best guess was that we’d have to learn to live with this virus. So then I asked myself, “Am I better protected in the long run with natural immunity or getting a vaccine each year?”
Given my mortality risk was roughly 05% and we don’t know the long-term effects of getting the vaccine each year, I chose natural immunity.
You may disagree with my decision. And that’s cool. But that’s my decision to make.
4) The gray line between individual anatomy and community benefit
My bias here tends to err on the side of personal freedom, but life is never that simple.
Anytime we live in a community setting, we agree to sacrifice some individual freedoms for the collective.
That line varies person-to-person.
For example, kids are required to get the polio vaccine before starting school. Why? Because of a risk calculation. If an adolescent or adult gets polio, the mortality risk is 15% to 30%.
We surrender our individual choice here for the sake of the community.
Hell, if I had a 15-30% chance of dying with Covid, I would be breaking into a hospital and giving myself the jab! :)
Remember: a healthy 39 yr old male with Covid has a .05% chance of mortality.
Vaccine mandates
With Omicron, it’s clear that the vaccine doesn’t prevent transmission. Therefore, it makes no rational sense to mandate vaccines.
5) Going forward
We have to learn to live with Covid. So what does that mean?
You’ll get exposure through the vaccine or through natural immunity.
I think the vaccine makes sense for the majority of adult Americans.
Why? Because we’re a fat, unhealthy country.
I know we don’t like to admit that, but let’s call a spade a spade.
- Roughly 659,000 people in the United States die each year from heart disease.
- 42% of Americans are obese. Remember, the highest risk factor for death was obesity.
Can a healthy person like me drop dead from Covid?
Of course. Outliers do exist.
But policy decisions shouldn’t be made based on outliers. Instead, it should rely on the collective data.
Remember, even decisions with good intentions have unintended consequences.
My final thoughts
You can live your life thinking everyone is out to harm you or that most people are good folks doing the best they know how.
One approach to life will leave you angry and the other optimistic.
The choice is yours.
Luv & Respect!
-TMAC
*I likely would’ve gotten the vaccine if someone I saw on a consistent basis was immune-compromised and could not get the vaccine by no fault of their own.
